Seeking Shelter: Iran and the Next Structural Shift in Global Oil Markets

The Iran conflict catalyses a structural shift in oil markets reminiscent of the 1970s and 80s. The oil shocks of that era rewired global investment patterns, redirecting capital toward jurisdictions capable of delivering reliable supply. Western Canada was a principal beneficiary. Today a similar realignment is emerging, making long-life, low-decline supply from Canada highly valuable. However, Canada’s opportunity to provide investment ‘shelter’ once more will depend not only on these features of the resource, but on its fiscal competitiveness and willingness to act.